Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Thailand's public debt build up after the 1997 Crisis compared to other countries

public debt after crisis

In Thailand many are concerned about what fiscal stimulus and increased government spending will do to government budget deficits and public debt (Read Bangkok Post article).

How long do the negative after-effects of a  banking crisis last?

This is the subject of a  recent VoxEU article by economist Carmen M. Reinhart based on an upcoming paper in the prestigious American Economic Review (Read paper from her publications list).  

There is typically a sharp rise in public debt in the three years following a banking crisis.

(See comparison above graph from paper that shows "cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following the banking crisis").

After the 1997 crisis Thailand's public debt build up was slightly below the historical average of 86%.

Thailand was subject to an IMF austerity programme during part of this period.

Would the public debt ballooned to an even greater level if this had not been the case?

The paper also compares other negative after-effects including: declines in housing prices, increase in unemployment, government budget deficits, and credit rating downgrades. 

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